Published
A financial thriller built on real data: four fault lines converging beneath the $3 trillion private credit market.
A financial thriller built on real data. The people, firms and funds are fictional composites; the analysis is real. Three trillion dollars of private credit now sits outside the reach of bank regulators, fed by pension funds reaching for yield, insurance balance sheets reaching for spread and an AI capital expenditure cycle whose cash flows may arrive too late to service the debt. Beneath it, four fault lines are converging: a software canary whose multiples no longer compound, a healthcare rollup belt running on stale marks, a Bermuda Triangle of life and annuity reinsurance, and a deflationary current arriving from China. The book does not predict a date; it explains what cracks when the marks finally move. Its forty footnotes draw on the Financial Stability Board, the IMF, the BIS, the Federal Reserve, the Office of Financial Research, KBRA and Moody's.
Intended readers. For derivatives desks, credit analysts, financial journalists, and policy researchers tracking systemic risk.
SSRN 6884658 · RePEc · DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20558733
Cited by Larry's Substack (Larry Swedroe), .