CrossVol Research, Book 3 of 3 · Published
Why the sell side is six months late on AI infrastructure.
The sell-side consensus on US AI infrastructure (hyperscaler capex compounding at 25 to 30% a year through 2028, US power demand doubling by 2027, a memory supercycle) is, the book argues on quantifiable grounds, six months late. It documents five convergent shocks: token commoditization led by DeepSeek pricing, Chinese hardware reaching cost parity, the US power grid bottleneck, China's parallel energy buildout and the hyperscaler bond wall, with a four-front geopolitical layer (Iran, Greenland, Venezuela and Cuba) beneath them. The framework is built to be falsifiable: every catalyst is dated, every risk carries a probability, and a catalyst calendar runs from the third quarter of 2026 to the second quarter of 2027.
Intended readers. For derivatives strategists, equity research analysts, and cross-asset macro PMs.
The AI Infrastructure Repricing: Five Vectors, Four Geopolitical Fronts, and the Structural Short